Pre-Flop Raises, continued

ME:

Okay, let's talk 6-3 suited (just to continue with your example).

According to my poker simulator, this is a hand that wins...

Against 9 opponents, 10% of the time;
Against 5 opponents, 13.5% of the time;
Against 2 opponents, 25% of the time.

For purposes of comparison, 7-2 offsuit, the worst hand of all, wins...

Against 9 opponents, 4% of the time;
Against 5 opponents, 7.5% of the time;
Against 2 opponents, 19% of the time.

So 6-3 suited is, depending on amount of opponents, somewhere between slightly stronger than and twice as strong as the worst hand you could have. This is not to criticize it, just to clarify where we are on the hand scale.

Okay. So to review, the arguments for PFR'ing with it are:

1. Everyone could fold, and you win the hand right there, pre-flop.

Well, obviously, that's an argument for PFR'ing with ANY hand. Question is, how often will this happen. Naturally, a lot depends on the amount of players and how tight they are, but by and large, my observation is that at the level of play we're at, a) there aren't a whole lot of pre-flop walks, and b) when they do happen, it's usually because someone made a monstrous raise like all-in because they have Jacks or something and don't want to take any chances of losing the hand.

But by and large, a 3-4x the BB PFR will get at least one caller, sometimes several. Let's face it, people like to see flops, especially when the stakes are as relatively low as our games are. And on top of that, not only are you going to get callers most of the time, but occasionally you'll even get a re-raiser. What then? Call (or re-raise) the re-raise? Pretty ballsy and not likely to work out. Fold? Probably the wisest move, and there go a few wasted BB's. So...a) doesn't do much for me. But let's look at...

b) The board hits your hand, and people don't expect it (because you PFR'd, so they assume you have something stronger than 6-3 suited).

Well, sure, we love that. But...

1. How often does that happen?

As said above, this is a winning hand (betting and everything else aside) 25% of the time (or in pessimist terms, a losing hand 75% of the time) against a mere two opponents. And that's IF you hang in there all the way to the river. How often does it SEEM like a potentially winning hand on the flop, i.e., how often would you like the flop enough to call a bet on it? Probably not too often.

And sure, if you don't hit it, you could continuation bet it, but that only works out if i) Everybody folds (so you don't win much) or ii) You hit your hand on the turn and/or river (which won't happen much).

So okay, I'll concede that when this hand DOES hit for you, it will probably pay off big...though again, certainly not necessarily. If I called your PFR with, say, A-Q, and a rag flop comes, I'm probably going to let you bet on it, and if you do, I probably fold. Done and done.

So now we're talking about a hand that a) Doesn't win much, b) The few times it does, it pays off big SOME of the time. Does that make it worth PFR'ing?

Well, that brings us to: What's the advantage of PFR'ing with it over just calling with it? Let's explore that option:

a) If you just call with it, you still have the mystery on your side. If you don't pre-flop raise much, no one will really know WHAT you have on any given hand. So not much advantage either way there.

b) Sure, if you PFR and get a caller or two and hit your hand, the pot will be bigger, but on the other hand, if you don't PFR, you're more likely to have MORE callers, so that's that many more people that you've got a great hand hidden from after the flop. One guy could have Jacks, one guy a flush draw, one guy top pair or even two pair, etc. So again, I'd call that a push.

c) The fact of the matter remains, it's a relatively weak hand, so what it boils down to: Most of the time, calling with it is a waste of a BB, and PFR'ing with it is a waste of a few BB's.

Again, not making the argument that you should NEVER pre-flop raise with it; clearly it's worked out for you enough for you to have some fondness for it. Point is, the arguments for calling with it don't really suffer in comparison, and the arguments AGAINST pfr'ing with it instead of calling have some weight. On balance, I'd say it's the sort of hand you PFR with once in a while, just to mix things up, and depending on the circumstances.

The arguments for PFR'ing with Jacks and Queens are a bit stronger; you PFR when you don't want to see a flop, but IF you do, you're still probably in pretty good shape.

DOUG EBOCH:

I would take issue with the assumption that if you PFR you have to make the continuation bet when you don't hit. One of the reasons to play low suited connectors and low pairs is they're supposed to be easy to get away from. If you play 3-3 and get nothing but over cards, why make the continuation? That to me is the pointless move... unless you've put an opponent on a specific hand (perhaps by reaction to PFR) that you think you can beat or push him off of.

Where I do like a simple call of the BB is in late position. That's because one of the problems is in most of the games I play you'll rarely get a chance to see a flop with a simple call of the BB. If you're on the button and nobody's raised you might have an opportunity. But if you're in early position and you don't raise, what do yo do when someone else raises 3xBB? If you have 9's do you re-raise? Call? What about low suited connectors or low pairs? If you fold you've just thrown away some money. So you've completely defeated your attempt to see the flop cheap. Sometimes making the raise yourself means others will only call and then you're the one in the driver's seat.

At which point, the topic morphed into continuation bets, which I'll start a new thread about soon.

Feel free to post your own thoughts below and continue this scintillating chat...